SGX on CapitaLand Hospitality

While visitor arrivals increased by 6.4% in 1Q13, gross lettings for 1Q13 grew by only ~2.8% to 2.8m room nights. This means that on a per capita basis, visitor arrivals are converting into fewer room nights, continuing a trend we note for 2012. With regard to the haze, we understand from an industry source that hotel bookings are not being negatively affected just yet. However, we think a blip in hotel performance through 3Q13 is likely given that the haze could last at least several weeks. Keeping in mind the mild oversupply situation for hotels we see building up, we remain NEUTRAL on the hospitality sector. We prefer Global Premium Hotels [BUY, FV: S$0.33], a longer-term asset value play in the Economy and Mid-tier space. (Sarah Ong) Mapletree Logistics Trust: Scaling up presence in Korea Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) has entered into a sale and purchase agreement with supply chain management company, Oakline Co. Ltd, for the acquisition of The Box Centre in South Korea. Oakline will lease back the property for a period of six years with built-in rental escalation from second year onwards. At a purchase consideration of KRW28.75b (~S$32.0m), the property is expected to provide an initial NPI yield of 8.4%. Management expects to fund the acquisition fully by debt, which is expected to increase its aggregate leverage marginally from 34.1% as at 31 Mar to 34.6%. This is likely to add ~0.03 S cents to FY14 DPU, based on our projections. We now factor in the acquisition into our forecasts, with the assumption that it will be completed in Jul. However, we reduce our fair value from S$1.34 to S$1.15 on higher cost of equity to reflect a higher risk-free rate, higher beta and reduced market risk appetite for interest-rate sensitive stocks. We maintain HOLD on MLT due to valuation grounds. (Kevin Tan) CapitaLand Limited: Top bid for Coronation site Yesterday evening, CapitaLand (CAPL) put in the top bid of S$366 million for a 99-year leasehold landed residential site at Coronation Road. The 37,441 sqm site is located within an established landed housing estate and enjoys good accessibility to Bukit Timah Rd and Pan Island Expressway. The GLS tender attracted 12 bids and CAPL's top bid was 17% higher than the second highest bidder - signaling the group's confidence in this project. We understand CAPL intends to develop a landed project comprising semi-detached and bungalows. We expect selling prices in the range of S$1.6k - S$1.8k psf and the project to accrete 1.3 - 2.2 S-cents to CAPL's RNAV. Pending the award of the site, we would keep our fair value estimate unchanged at S$4.29 (20% discount to RNAV). Maintain BUY. (Eli Lee)

NEWS HEADLINES - US stocks tumbled on Thurs, with the S&P 500 suffering its worst session since Nov 2011, hit by fear that the Federal Reserve will scale back its bond buying later this year. - South Korea's Lotte Shopping Co Ltd is looking to raise US$800m to US$1b by listing a REIT in Singapore as early as this year, according to IFR, a Thomson Reuters publication. - China's flash HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index for June dropped to a nine-month low yesterday, pointing to continuing weakness in local and external demand. - Armstrong Industrial Corporation Limited said that it has received a proposal from a consortium involving its major shareholder that may result in the delisting of the company. - Former Novena Holdings CEO Toh Soon Huat is leading a group of 17 investors, including a unit of mainboard-listed Serial System, to pump a total of S$15.04m into Jubilee Industries Holdings. - ISDN Holdings Limited plans to raise up to S$111.6m in gross proceeds from the issue and exercise of warrants. - Stamford Tyres Corporation posted an 18.5% rise in earnings for its full fiscal year ended April 30, boosted by a one-time gain from the sale of its stake in an associate.

STI on drop

Singapore shares were headed for their biggest one-day decline in more than a year, tracking weaker global markets after Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank would start to reduce its stimulus measures later this year.
The benchmark Straits Times Index dropped nearly 2% on Thursday. The broadest MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell more than 3% in its sharpest daily slump since November 2011.
Share price of Medtecs International Corp, which produces medical products including face masks, surged 11% in a second straight day of rise to $0.07, on expectation of higher sales of masks in the city-state hit by its worst air pollution in history.
In other stocks, ComfortDelGro Corporation fell 2.8% to $1.76, but stayed off a six-month low of $1.70 hit last week. Analysts at OCBC Investment Research saw it as a good entry point given its recent share stability and unchanged fundamentals.
“Domestic challenges aside, the group's overseas growth prospects, which have been its key growth driver, remain unchanged,” the analysts wrote in a note, adding that the blow to share price from a recent partial stake sale by the Singapore Labour Foundation has tapered off.
OCBC upgraded the stock to “buy” with a target price of $1.95.

SXG up with Phillip, Keppel Corp

PhillipCapital removes Boustead Singapore (F9D.SG) and SIA Engineering (S59.SG) from its top picks list for Singapore and replaces them with Singapore Exchange (S68.SG) and Keppel Corp. (BN4.SG).

The house likes Singapore Exchange for three reasons: higher securities revenue; continued derivatives revenue growth; an expected increase in free cash flow and dividend yields. It has an Accumulate rating and $8.00 target on the stock.

The house believes that Keppel Corp. "will continue to benefit from the robust O&M outlook, which is well-supported by high dayrates and utilizations for both jack-up and semi-sub rigs." Keppel's 4%-5% dividend yield should also not be ignored, it says. It has an Accumulate rating and $12.34 target on the stock.
Boustead is flat at $1.32, SIA Engineering gains 0.8% to $4.93, Singapore Exchange is up 1.1% at $7.34 and Keppel Corp. is 1% higher at $10.68.

Singapore's STI is trading at 3,215.39, up 1.1% from Monday's close after a bullish cue from Wall Street. Singapore Technologies Engineering (S63.SG) is pacing gains, up 2.8% at $3.99 after it announced its unit ST Aerospace has signed a deal with UTC Aerospace systems for long-term repair and maintenance of Boeing 787 Dreamliner components.

Consumer Sector, Cache Logistics Trust: SG Market Updates

We downgrade the consumer sector to UNDERWEIGHT in light of the weaker SG retail sales figures for Apr and the potential threats to regional consumer spending (i.e macro-overhang, government policy changes and greater foreign competition). With sales figures likely to showcase unimpressive results for May, 2QCY13 could well shape out to be a muted quarter in terms of top-line growth for consumer companies. Furthermore, operating cost pressures resulting from higher wage costs and advertising and promotional spending still remain so operating margins are likely to stay depressed. Within the sector, we favour counters with defensive qualities such as Sheng Siong [BUY; FV: S$0.82] or counters with potential M&A activity Viz Branz [BUY; FV: S$0.74]. (Lim Siyi) MORE REPORTS Cache Logistics Trust: Valuation looks undemanding Summary: We are reiterating our prognosis that Cache Logistics Trust (CACHE) is likely to continue to deliver sustainable growth for FY13. CACHE has a portfolio of quality assets which has a 100% occupancy rate and strong weighted average lease to expiry of 3.7 years. Together with the recent acquisition of Precise Two, CACHE is likely to meet our growth projection for 2013. Since 22 May, the S-REITs sector, including CACHE, has recently experienced a sell-down on fears that the US Federal Reserve may reduce the pace of its bond purchase programme and raise the interest rates in the coming months. However, we believe that the market reaction on CACHE is overdone, given its strong financial position and active capital management. At current price, CACHE offers a FY13-14F DPU yield of 6.8-7.1%, which represents an attractive spread of 471-500 bps to Singapore's 10-year bond yield. While we now revise our fair value to S$1.40 from S$1.45 on higher risk-free rate assumption, we still see good upside potential on CACHE. Maintain BUY. (Kevin Tan)

NEWS HEADLINES - Asian stock futures fell, signaling a possible extension of declines amongst Asian equities after the International Monetary Fund cut its US growth forecast and ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting this week. - Singapore may gain from its first-mover position for business trusts in the region, market watchers say, even if historical performance is mixed and amid a recent dip in sentiment for yield plays. - Singapore's monetary authority censured banks for trying to rig benchmark interest rates and orders the setting aside of as much as S$12b at zero interest pending steps to improve internal controls. - Far East Orchard has been awarded a tender for a residential land parcel with FCL Topaz Pte. Ltd., a member of Frasers Centrepoint and Sekisui House, Ltd. The total tender price for the land was S$256.9m. - First Ship Lease Trust demands the redelivery of its two crude oil tankers, after lessees default on their lease payments. - Freight Links Express expands the scope of its logistics business by entering the commodity logistics segment

STI Weekly Technical Data Analysis

Some points to note for this week's analysis (10-14 Jun 2013):
1) None of the counters are in the overbought region (RSI value 70 and above).
2) 10 of the counters is in the oversold region (RSI value 30 and below).

After ending last week at 3184.72, the STI slid further this week to close at 3161.43 (closing end of today), with an intraweek high of 3214.88 and an intraweek low of 3094.86.

Despite another week of losses, we note that the index has built a firm support at the 3100 key level after rebounding strongly from its intraday low yesterday.

And with the index showing signs of re-conquering the 3160 immediate obstacle today, we could potentially see a further technical recovery towards the 3230 subsequent resistance in the week ahead.

STI down 1.86%

Singapore shares fell for the third day in a row, plumbing new 2013 lows, hit by concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve will roll back its stimulus amid a slowing global economy.

The Straits Times Index (STI) declined as much as 1.86% to 3,094.86, the lowest since Dec. 7. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 1.9%. 

 Japan’s Nikkei share average dived more than 5%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index shed 2.9%.

 "Markets are very jittery these few weeks, believing that once QE (quantitative easing) is taken out, markets will more likely reflect the reality of the slow growth environment," said Kenneth Ng, head of CIMB Research in Singapore. "We think the floor (for the STI) is somewhere at 2,740 to 2,955. 

We think that the selldown will continue, so we’ll start buying only after it falls below 3,000." Selling in the Singapore market is broad-based on Thursday, led by Global Logistic Properties, Singapore Technologies Engineering and Sembcorp Industries, which fell around 3% each.

Starhill, Tiger, Midas up STI

Starhill Global REIT: Another positive development Summary: Starhill Global REIT (SGREIT) announced that the rent review for the Toshin master lease has been concluded, and that a renewal rent at 6.7% higher than the prevailing rate has been secured. This is consistent with our 29 Apr report that SGREIT may again benefit from rental upside following the completion of the review process. We now factor in the increased rents in our forecasts but lower our fair value marginally to S$1.00 on higher risk-free rate (S$1.05 previously). However, we continue to like SGREIT for its growth potential, strong financial position and compelling valuations. For FY13, SGREIT looks set to gain from continued strength from its Singapore portfolio, incremental income from its newly-acquired Plaza Arcade and a 7.2% rental escalation from its Malaysia master leases in Jun. We maintain BUY on SGREIT. Key risks include weaker JPY/AUD and negative impact from a potential CPU conversion. (Kevin Tan) MORE REPORTS Tiger Airways: Time for a tiger Summary: In light of its more than 6% price correction, we are reiterating our BUY rating on Tiger Airways (TGR) with an unchanged fair value estimate of S$0.79 as we believe prospects remain positive for the counter. Its recent May operating statistics revealed its eighth consecutive month of passenger traffic growth for TGR SG, and passenger load factors during the period have also remained fairly resilient, which demonstrates its effective capacity management. In addition, we are hopeful for a better showing from its associate airlines given the propensity for travel in the coming months for Indonesia and the Philippines. On a broader scale, the industry dynamics, namely growth in the Asia-Pacific region, remains conducive for budget carriers as consumers become more affluent and appetite for air travel increases. (Lim Siyi)

Midas Holdings: JV NPRT secures CNY1.26b metro contract Summary: Midas Holdings (Midas) announced that its 32.5%-owned JV Nanjing SR Puzhen Rail Transport (NPRT) has clinched a CNY1.26b metro contract. This is for the supply of 33 train sets (or 198 train cars) for the Shenzhen Metro Line 3 project. However, delivery is scheduled only from 2015 to 2016. Given that this is the third contract secured by NPRT in two weeks, we believe this highlights the growing momentum of China's metro industry. In our view, this may also lead to future contract wins for Midas given that it is a supplier of aluminium extrusion profiles for NPRT. Maintain BUY on Midas, with an unchanged fair value estimate of S$0.54, pegged at 1.1x FY13F P/B. (Wong Teck Ching Andy)

NEWS HEADLINES - US stocks fell, sending the S&P 500 Index lower for a second day, after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said he sees no need to expand monetary stimulus immediately. - DBS would still want to buy Temasek's entire stake in Danamon, Business Times reports, citing an interview with Peter Seah, chairman of DBS Group Holdings Ltd. - Aussino expects that it will not be able to exit the SGX watch list by the 3 Sep deadline and intends to apply to SGX for extension of time to apply for removal from watch list. - T T J Holdings wins new contracts for structural steelworks and civil defence shelter doors in Singapore and Malaysia, bringing its order book to S$164m as at 11 Jun. - Tsit Wing's Chairman and CEO Peter Wong seeks to privatize the company and has acquired an aggregate of 20m ordinary shares at a price of $0.3075 each, valuing it at S$65.5m - Del Monte Pacific says shareholder Nutriasia Pacific to enter a placement agreement for the sale of 150m shares of the Company which will be listed and traded on the PSE, marking first dual listing between the SGX and the PSE.