Singapore’s equity top picks tips

key themes in Singapore’s equity space: 1) earnings quality with an overseas bias; 2) China domestic demand; 3) visitor arrivals to Singapore; 4) stock-specific stories.

For the first, it likes SembCorp Marine (S51.SG) as it is well-positioned for an expected order surge in 2H and has a healthy order book, Vard (MS7.SG) with its improving order outlook and asset enhancement investments, and Genting Hong Kong (S21.SG) given its valuations and improving asset performance.


For the second, it likes CapitaMalls Asia (JS8.SG) as Singapore’s best play on Asian retail and consumption, Global Logistic Properties (MC0.SG) as China’s 12th five-year plan highlighted the logistics sector as a pillar industry, and China Minzhong Food (K2N.SG) as its large-scale vegetables origination and processing business in China is well poised to grow given a burgeoning population and urbanisation trend.


On the third, it likes Genting Singapore (G13.SG) as it runs a high-traffic casino in Singapore’s protected two-player market, which has 25-year concession visibility. On the fourth, it likes Hongkong Land (H78.SG) as it provides the greatest leverage to a recovery in the Hong Kong Central office market, Neptune Orient Lines (N03.SG) on expectations for a rebound in net profit, and ARA Asset Management (D1R.SG) given its track record of growing assets under management and its scalable business model.

OVERNIGHT MARKET : Implications for Singapore

US equities posted modest gains on Friday but still fell for the week as fears over stimulus withdrawal dominated investor sentiment.

P&G (+2.9%) led gains for the Dow on Fri but the index fell 1.8% for its worst week performance since Apr. The S&P 500 saw some bargain hunting for defensive sectors on Fri but lost 2.1% for the week. Rounding off the major indices, the NASDAQ Composite declined 1.9% for the week. NYSE composite volume exceeded 5.6b (4.8b previously).

WTI Crude for Aug lost US$1.45, or 1.5%, to end at US$93.69/barrel while Brent for Aug delivery lost US$1.24, or 1.2%, to settle at US$100.91/barrel. For the week, WTI and Brent lost 4.5% and 4.7% each.

Gold for Aug delivery added US$5.80, or 0.5%, to end at US$1,292.10/ounce while Silver for Jul gained 14 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at US$19.96/ounce. For the week, gold and silver lost 6.9% and 9.1% each. 

Implications for Singapore

The modest gains by the US indices last Friday night and the positive Nikkei start (up 0.9% now) could provide some mild inspiration to the local bourse this morning.

Despite plunging below the 3100 key support intraday on Friday, the STI managed to regain most of its earlier losses and close back above this vital level.

With today's tone likely to turn a tad more optimistic, the index could inch higher in the direction of the 3230 key resistance; however, the risk of investors selling into strength again as the index recovers still remains.

Beyond the 3230 level, the next obstacle is pegged at the 3320 resistance. On the downside, 3100 is still the immediate support, followed by the next base at the 3000 psychological level.

SGX on CapitaLand Hospitality

While visitor arrivals increased by 6.4% in 1Q13, gross lettings for 1Q13 grew by only ~2.8% to 2.8m room nights. This means that on a per capita basis, visitor arrivals are converting into fewer room nights, continuing a trend we note for 2012. With regard to the haze, we understand from an industry source that hotel bookings are not being negatively affected just yet. However, we think a blip in hotel performance through 3Q13 is likely given that the haze could last at least several weeks. Keeping in mind the mild oversupply situation for hotels we see building up, we remain NEUTRAL on the hospitality sector. We prefer Global Premium Hotels [BUY, FV: S$0.33], a longer-term asset value play in the Economy and Mid-tier space. (Sarah Ong) Mapletree Logistics Trust: Scaling up presence in Korea Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) has entered into a sale and purchase agreement with supply chain management company, Oakline Co. Ltd, for the acquisition of The Box Centre in South Korea. Oakline will lease back the property for a period of six years with built-in rental escalation from second year onwards. At a purchase consideration of KRW28.75b (~S$32.0m), the property is expected to provide an initial NPI yield of 8.4%. Management expects to fund the acquisition fully by debt, which is expected to increase its aggregate leverage marginally from 34.1% as at 31 Mar to 34.6%. This is likely to add ~0.03 S cents to FY14 DPU, based on our projections. We now factor in the acquisition into our forecasts, with the assumption that it will be completed in Jul. However, we reduce our fair value from S$1.34 to S$1.15 on higher cost of equity to reflect a higher risk-free rate, higher beta and reduced market risk appetite for interest-rate sensitive stocks. We maintain HOLD on MLT due to valuation grounds. (Kevin Tan) CapitaLand Limited: Top bid for Coronation site Yesterday evening, CapitaLand (CAPL) put in the top bid of S$366 million for a 99-year leasehold landed residential site at Coronation Road. The 37,441 sqm site is located within an established landed housing estate and enjoys good accessibility to Bukit Timah Rd and Pan Island Expressway. The GLS tender attracted 12 bids and CAPL's top bid was 17% higher than the second highest bidder - signaling the group's confidence in this project. We understand CAPL intends to develop a landed project comprising semi-detached and bungalows. We expect selling prices in the range of S$1.6k - S$1.8k psf and the project to accrete 1.3 - 2.2 S-cents to CAPL's RNAV. Pending the award of the site, we would keep our fair value estimate unchanged at S$4.29 (20% discount to RNAV). Maintain BUY. (Eli Lee)

NEWS HEADLINES - US stocks tumbled on Thurs, with the S&P 500 suffering its worst session since Nov 2011, hit by fear that the Federal Reserve will scale back its bond buying later this year. - South Korea's Lotte Shopping Co Ltd is looking to raise US$800m to US$1b by listing a REIT in Singapore as early as this year, according to IFR, a Thomson Reuters publication. - China's flash HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index for June dropped to a nine-month low yesterday, pointing to continuing weakness in local and external demand. - Armstrong Industrial Corporation Limited said that it has received a proposal from a consortium involving its major shareholder that may result in the delisting of the company. - Former Novena Holdings CEO Toh Soon Huat is leading a group of 17 investors, including a unit of mainboard-listed Serial System, to pump a total of S$15.04m into Jubilee Industries Holdings. - ISDN Holdings Limited plans to raise up to S$111.6m in gross proceeds from the issue and exercise of warrants. - Stamford Tyres Corporation posted an 18.5% rise in earnings for its full fiscal year ended April 30, boosted by a one-time gain from the sale of its stake in an associate.

STI on drop

Singapore shares were headed for their biggest one-day decline in more than a year, tracking weaker global markets after Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank would start to reduce its stimulus measures later this year.
The benchmark Straits Times Index dropped nearly 2% on Thursday. The broadest MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell more than 3% in its sharpest daily slump since November 2011.
Share price of Medtecs International Corp, which produces medical products including face masks, surged 11% in a second straight day of rise to $0.07, on expectation of higher sales of masks in the city-state hit by its worst air pollution in history.
In other stocks, ComfortDelGro Corporation fell 2.8% to $1.76, but stayed off a six-month low of $1.70 hit last week. Analysts at OCBC Investment Research saw it as a good entry point given its recent share stability and unchanged fundamentals.
“Domestic challenges aside, the group's overseas growth prospects, which have been its key growth driver, remain unchanged,” the analysts wrote in a note, adding that the blow to share price from a recent partial stake sale by the Singapore Labour Foundation has tapered off.
OCBC upgraded the stock to “buy” with a target price of $1.95.

Starhill, Tiger, Midas up STI

Starhill Global REIT: Another positive development Summary: Starhill Global REIT (SGREIT) announced that the rent review for the Toshin master lease has been concluded, and that a renewal rent at 6.7% higher than the prevailing rate has been secured. This is consistent with our 29 Apr report that SGREIT may again benefit from rental upside following the completion of the review process. We now factor in the increased rents in our forecasts but lower our fair value marginally to S$1.00 on higher risk-free rate (S$1.05 previously). However, we continue to like SGREIT for its growth potential, strong financial position and compelling valuations. For FY13, SGREIT looks set to gain from continued strength from its Singapore portfolio, incremental income from its newly-acquired Plaza Arcade and a 7.2% rental escalation from its Malaysia master leases in Jun. We maintain BUY on SGREIT. Key risks include weaker JPY/AUD and negative impact from a potential CPU conversion. (Kevin Tan) MORE REPORTS Tiger Airways: Time for a tiger Summary: In light of its more than 6% price correction, we are reiterating our BUY rating on Tiger Airways (TGR) with an unchanged fair value estimate of S$0.79 as we believe prospects remain positive for the counter. Its recent May operating statistics revealed its eighth consecutive month of passenger traffic growth for TGR SG, and passenger load factors during the period have also remained fairly resilient, which demonstrates its effective capacity management. In addition, we are hopeful for a better showing from its associate airlines given the propensity for travel in the coming months for Indonesia and the Philippines. On a broader scale, the industry dynamics, namely growth in the Asia-Pacific region, remains conducive for budget carriers as consumers become more affluent and appetite for air travel increases. (Lim Siyi)

Midas Holdings: JV NPRT secures CNY1.26b metro contract Summary: Midas Holdings (Midas) announced that its 32.5%-owned JV Nanjing SR Puzhen Rail Transport (NPRT) has clinched a CNY1.26b metro contract. This is for the supply of 33 train sets (or 198 train cars) for the Shenzhen Metro Line 3 project. However, delivery is scheduled only from 2015 to 2016. Given that this is the third contract secured by NPRT in two weeks, we believe this highlights the growing momentum of China's metro industry. In our view, this may also lead to future contract wins for Midas given that it is a supplier of aluminium extrusion profiles for NPRT. Maintain BUY on Midas, with an unchanged fair value estimate of S$0.54, pegged at 1.1x FY13F P/B. (Wong Teck Ching Andy)

NEWS HEADLINES - US stocks fell, sending the S&P 500 Index lower for a second day, after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said he sees no need to expand monetary stimulus immediately. - DBS would still want to buy Temasek's entire stake in Danamon, Business Times reports, citing an interview with Peter Seah, chairman of DBS Group Holdings Ltd. - Aussino expects that it will not be able to exit the SGX watch list by the 3 Sep deadline and intends to apply to SGX for extension of time to apply for removal from watch list. - T T J Holdings wins new contracts for structural steelworks and civil defence shelter doors in Singapore and Malaysia, bringing its order book to S$164m as at 11 Jun. - Tsit Wing's Chairman and CEO Peter Wong seeks to privatize the company and has acquired an aggregate of 20m ordinary shares at a price of $0.3075 each, valuing it at S$65.5m - Del Monte Pacific says shareholder Nutriasia Pacific to enter a placement agreement for the sale of 150m shares of the Company which will be listed and traded on the PSE, marking first dual listing between the SGX and the PSE.

Keppel REIT fall down SGX Live

Keppel REIT's units fell down up to 2% with just Keppel Corporation Ltd would sell a 6.7 % stake in the trust for S$280 million.

Price down notice after a 5-1/2-year high of S$1.63 last week, outperforming a 13 % rise in the sector index.

Keppel REIT alive at S$1.57 per unit 7 sell price of $1.555 for the 180 million units or 6.7 percent of the total issued units. it remained positive on Keppel REIT because of the trust's strong office portfolio in Singapore, and retained its target price of S$1.64.

SGX Market News

INSTRUMENT LAST PCT CHG NET CHG

S&P 500 1617.5 0.19% 3.080
USD/JPY 99.26 -0.07% -0.070
10-YR US TSY YLD 1.7571 -- -0.007
SPOT GOLD 1467.69 -0.08% -1.200
US CRUDE 95.76 -0.42% -0.400
DOW JONES 14968.89 -0.03% -5.07
ASIA ADRS 143.66 -0.09% -0.13

MARKET NEWS
> Nikkei up 2.8 pct to pass 14,000 after U.S. jobs data
> S&P 500 closes at record again; financials, Apple lead
> Bond yields at three-week high ahead of auctions
> Euro tripped by ECB, Aussie eyes rate decision
> Gold eases in low volume, ETF outflows in focus
> Oil up over $105 per barrel on Mideast tensions
> Key political risks to watch in Singapore

GLOBAL MARKETS-Asian shares steady on higher Wall Street
SE ASIA STOCKS-Mostly up; Malaysia at record high after election

STOCKS TO WATCH
-- DYNAMIC COLOURS LTD, INTRACO LTD
- Intraco Ltd, a trading company that owns 39.48 percent of Dynamic Colours (DCL), has made a mandatory conditional cash offer for all of DCL's issued ordinary shares at S$0.185 per share.
-- OKH GLOBAL LTD
- Property and construction firm OKH Global Ltd, formerly known as Sinobest Technology Holdings Ltd, will begin trading from 9 a.m. (0100 GMT) on the Singapore Exchange.
-- HEALTHWAY MEDICAL CORP LTD
- Healthway Medical has proposed an additional distribution
in specie to shareholders of up to 675,324 shares, representing
up to 3.38 percent of the healthcare services group.

Index Static, CapitaLand Rise up 1 Week High

SGX Equities got slightly change, as Investors focused on debt by Cyprus & deteriorating economic activity in the euro zone.

On Today, Straits Times Index as well as MSCI index remain static.

CapitaLand Ltd, Properyt Developer, performed well and traded widely by Friday value onwards. Equity gain 2% to a 1 week high about S$3.57.

Nomura inform that "Based on buyers' response to the new launches in March so far, it appears the latest measures have yet to dampen buyers' interest in the pre-sale market. There is scope for more policy changes, given the pre-sale market is still relatively robust. We expect secondary transaction volume to remain relatively low."

Its top pick among the developers is CapitaMalls Asia Ltd , while it remain cautious on City Developments Ltd.